Opened 2025-12-01 · conviction medium. Max runup —; max drawdown —.
SIVE's small workforce with a high proportion (1/4) of PhDs enables efficient creation of valuable IP, contrasting with LITE.
Source: ticker thesis extracted from public posts; prices from Cornerstones first, Yahoo fallback/backtest where needed. Primary=cornerstones; fallback=yahoo.
entry source postCPO (co-packaged optics) is a massive thematic opportunity, with TAM growing from $0 to $91B, favoring non-US players like SIVE, SOI, and Asian component/foundry companies, as US legacy players face cannibalization.
source postSivers Semiconductors owns the CW laser chokepoint for CPO, currently valued at $1.4B before CPO adoption, with potential for massive growth similar to LITE and AAOI which owned laser chokepoints for earlier technologies.
source postSIVE can become the next Lumentum by owning the laser chokepoint and acquiring downstream IP, scaling to $10B+ next year and $40B+ by 2028.
source postSold LITE positions at ~$385 due to potential issues from internal research; still a good long-term but lower conviction than NBIS.
source postSupply chain bottleneck in China-based substrate production and laser-grade Indium Phosphide (AXTI) could cause extreme delays in AI buildout, making capacity extremely valuable. Valuation math suggests backlog could be worth multiples if material becomes critical.
source postDownside risk for VPG from TSLA vertical integration; similar bear case for GOOGL with LITE.
source postJapanese export controls on InP substrates threaten photonics supply chain, potentially straining LITE and others, but AXTI capacity expansion and pricing premiums could offset.
source postPhotonic supply chain bottlenecks represent an investment opportunity similar to HBM bottlenecks, as hyperscalers hoard materials and acquire capacity. Focus on vertically integrated players like AXTI and upstream suppliers like Sumitomo and Dowa.
source postCoherent's CEO reaffirmed CPO as a massive revenue driver, with initial scale-out revenue in H2 2026 and scale-up in H2 2027, suggesting frontrunning CPO names before market pricing.
source postCPO market is in the beginning or middle of a supercycle, confirmed by GS and LITE transcript. Shorting CPO-related names is ill-advised.
source postCPO supply demand imbalance with $LITE as a key beneficiary, as CPO scaling is their largest single growth driver still in infancy.
source postCPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is entering a supercycle with massive TAM expansion from close to nothing to $91B, creating a supply-demand imbalance. The CEO of LITE confirmed this, making it the largest growth driver. The user has positions in multiple companies for high beta exposure to this trend.
source post